Jean-Noël Guérini in Marseille in the lead for the first time.
Municipales. In Marseille, PS is the candidate for the 1st time in the lead in the polls.
Could this be the reversal of a trend? Two opinion polls show Jean-Noël Guérini in Marseille in the lead for the first time. The candidate PS nibbling away at its backlog, while the mayor (UMP) is diminishing steadily. Especially in the first round: none provided the range 42% to Jean-Claude Gaudin, and 39% to Guérini. She has been reversed, according to Le Figaro yesterday: 40% for the Socialist Party, 37% for the UMP (1). Paris Match is in the same waters (2). After Paris and Lyon, Marseille left?
Alert. Not yet. "There is a continuum: progress, analyzes Patrick Mennucci, campaign manager of Guérini. But I would of crazy to say it's won. "Right, worried, met yesterday morning to refocus things. "It's not Guérini rising, it is we who lowered, Judge Claude Bertrand, chief of staff of the mayor. We are trapped in a vote-sanction "anti-Sarkozy, benefiting the FN and the modem. For Bruno Gilles, Mayor (UMP) of the 3rd sector, "it does not feel a sling against us on the ground, but it is burdened by one or two points of the effect Sarko, who make the difference." Renaud Muselier, the first assistant (UMP), said: "I would be more worried if the Prime Minister dévissait. But then, this is only a problem in the relationship between the President and the French. So, we will not swallow everything in the air because we énerve President! "
But the warning is fierce and, according to Claude Bertrand, "everybody is concerned." Also, the UMP wants to raise the tone. "We will charge more on the promises of Guérini, said Bruno Gilles. It has not quite denounced. "And the right will be used bad polls. "They will re-our voters, ensures Gilles. They have a little fire to the buttocks. "
The problem for the UMP is that the problem is also local. The left harvest the fruits of its entry into campaign very early, made mandatory by the deficit Guérini fame. The chairman of the General Council of Bouches-du-Rhone gained credibility and pugnacity. His combativeness surprised, Friday, during a radio debate on France Bleu Provence. Gaudin, with all its verve, should have Guérini crush. Wrong. The candidate has nothing PS dropped. "You are not an perdreau of the year, even though I am a pheasant," slipped Gaudin, exceeded. But the two birds, it took off a little too late. With its status as outgoing, ten points ahead in the polls in the fall, and the looting UMP to legislative and presidential elections in 2007, the vice-president of the UMP has subconsciously believe the party won . Feeling the gap is closer, he anticipated entry into campaign mid-January, but he is struggling to find the tempo. Gaudin tries to reassure them with the mechanics of voting, as the election is held in eight municipal sectors, it is not enough to have a majority vote in the city. Gaudin had, in 1983, but he lost, against Gaston Defferre. Guérini will have to battle hard to win the two key sectors, I and III. But an opinion poll today in Provence, would give the 50-50 in the third sector.
Appearance. The outcome will depend including the unknown: the FN will he remain in the 2nd round (we must achieve 10%), and in how many sectors? The triangular benefit the left. In the third area, stronghold of Muselier, lists MNR and MPF have made an appearance timely history to prevent the presence of NF 2nd round… Another key factor: Modem, up according to the pollsters. The postponement of its votes in the second round could prove decisive. But its candidate, Jean-Luc Bennahmias, rather leans to the left.
(1) 51% for Guérini in 2nd round, against 49% for Gaudin. Poll Logica TNS-Sofres, conducted from 22 to February 23 to 700 people.
(2) 40% for Guérini, 36% for Gaudin. Fiducial-Ifop poll, conducted on 22 and 23 February, with 803 people.
Could this be the reversal of a trend? Two opinion polls show Jean-Noël Guérini in Marseille in the lead for the first time. The candidate PS nibbling away at its backlog, while the mayor (UMP) is diminishing steadily. Especially in the first round: none provided the range 42% to Jean-Claude Gaudin, and 39% to Guérini. She has been reversed, according to Le Figaro yesterday: 40% for the Socialist Party, 37% for the UMP (1). Paris Match is in the same waters (2). After Paris and Lyon, Marseille left?
Alert. Not yet. "There is a continuum: progress, analyzes Patrick Mennucci, campaign manager of Guérini. But I would of crazy to say it's won. "Right, worried, met yesterday morning to refocus things. "It's not Guérini rising, it is we who lowered, Judge Claude Bertrand, chief of staff of the mayor. We are trapped in a vote-sanction "anti-Sarkozy, benefiting the FN and the modem. For Bruno Gilles, Mayor (UMP) of the 3rd sector, "it does not feel a sling against us on the ground, but it is burdened by one or two points of the effect Sarko, who make the difference." Renaud Muselier, the first assistant (UMP), said: "I would be more worried if the Prime Minister dévissait. But then, this is only a problem in the relationship between the President and the French. So, we will not swallow everything in the air because we énerve President! "
But the warning is fierce and, according to Claude Bertrand, "everybody is concerned." Also, the UMP wants to raise the tone. "We will charge more on the promises of Guérini, said Bruno Gilles. It has not quite denounced. "And the right will be used bad polls. "They will re-our voters, ensures Gilles. They have a little fire to the buttocks. "
The problem for the UMP is that the problem is also local. The left harvest the fruits of its entry into campaign very early, made mandatory by the deficit Guérini fame. The chairman of the General Council of Bouches-du-Rhone gained credibility and pugnacity. His combativeness surprised, Friday, during a radio debate on France Bleu Provence. Gaudin, with all its verve, should have Guérini crush. Wrong. The candidate has nothing PS dropped. "You are not an perdreau of the year, even though I am a pheasant," slipped Gaudin, exceeded. But the two birds, it took off a little too late. With its status as outgoing, ten points ahead in the polls in the fall, and the looting UMP to legislative and presidential elections in 2007, the vice-president of the UMP has subconsciously believe the party won . Feeling the gap is closer, he anticipated entry into campaign mid-January, but he is struggling to find the tempo. Gaudin tries to reassure them with the mechanics of voting, as the election is held in eight municipal sectors, it is not enough to have a majority vote in the city. Gaudin had, in 1983, but he lost, against Gaston Defferre. Guérini will have to battle hard to win the two key sectors, I and III. But an opinion poll today in Provence, would give the 50-50 in the third sector.
Appearance. The outcome will depend including the unknown: the FN will he remain in the 2nd round (we must achieve 10%), and in how many sectors? The triangular benefit the left. In the third area, stronghold of Muselier, lists MNR and MPF have made an appearance timely history to prevent the presence of NF 2nd round… Another key factor: Modem, up according to the pollsters. The postponement of its votes in the second round could prove decisive. But its candidate, Jean-Luc Bennahmias, rather leans to the left.
(1) 51% for Guérini in 2nd round, against 49% for Gaudin. Poll Logica TNS-Sofres, conducted from 22 to February 23 to 700 people.
(2) 40% for Guérini, 36% for Gaudin. Fiducial-Ifop poll, conducted on 22 and 23 February, with 803 people.
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