Municipales. In Marseille, PS is the candidate for the 1st time in the lead in the polls

Could this be the reversal of a trend? Two opinion polls show Jean-Noël Guérini in Marseille in the lead for the first time. The candidate PS nibbling away at its backlog, while the mayor (UMP) is diminishing steadily. Especially in the first round: none provided the range 42% to Jean-Claude Gaudin, and 39% to Guérini. She has been reversed, according to Le Figaro yesterday: 40% for the Socialist Party, 37% for the UMP (1). Paris Match is in the same waters (2). After Paris and Lyon, Marseille left?

Alert. Not yet. "There is a continuum: progress, analyzes Patrick Mennucci, campaign manager of Guérini. But I would of crazy to say it's won. "Right, worried, met yesterday morning to refocus things. "It's not Guérini rising, it is we who lowered, Judge Claude Bertrand, chief of staff of the mayor. We are trapped in a vote-sanction "anti-Sarkozy, benefiting the FN and the modem. For Bruno Gilles, Mayor (UMP) of the 3rd sector, "it does not feel a sling against us on the ground, but it is burdened by one or two points of the effect Sarko, who make the difference." Renaud Muselier, the first assistant (UMP), said: "I would be more worried if the Prime Minister dévissait. But then, this is only a problem in the relationship between the President and the French. So, we will not swallow everything in the air because we énerve President! "

But the warning is fierce and, according to Claude Bertrand, "everybody is concerned." Also, the UMP wants to raise the tone. "We will charge more on the promises of Guérini, said Bruno Gilles. It has not quite denounced. "And the right will be used bad polls. "They will re-our voters, ensures Gilles. They have a little fire to the buttocks. "

The problem for the UMP is that the problem is also local. The left harvest the fruits of its entry into campaign very early, made mandatory by the deficit Guérini fame. The chairman of the General Council of Bouches-du-Rhone gained credibility and pugnacity. His combativeness surprised, Friday, during a radio debate on France Bleu Provence. Gaudin, with all its verve, should have Guérini crush. Wrong. The candidate has nothing PS dropped. "You are not an perdreau of the year, even though I am a pheasant," slipped Gaudin, exceeded. But the two birds, it took off a little too late. With its status as outgoing, ten points ahead in the polls in the fall, and the looting UMP to legislative and presidential elections in 2007, the vice-president of the UMP has subconsciously believe the party won . Feeling the gap is closer, he anticipated entry into campaign mid-January, but he is struggling to find the tempo. Gaudin tries to reassure them with the mechanics of voting, as the election is held in eight municipal sectors, it is not enough to have a majority vote in the city. Gaudin had, in 1983, but he lost, against Gaston Defferre. Guérini will have to battle hard to win the two key sectors, I and III. But an opinion poll today in Provence, would give the 50-50 in the third sector.

Appearance. The outcome will depend including the unknown: the FN will he remain in the 2nd round (we must achieve 10%), and in how many sectors? The triangular benefit the left. In the third area, stronghold of Muselier, lists MNR and MPF have made an appearance timely history to prevent the presence of NF 2nd round… Another key factor: Modem, up according to the pollsters. The postponement of its votes in the second round could prove decisive. But its candidate, Jean-Luc Bennahmias, rather leans to the left.


(1) 51% for Guérini in 2nd round, against 49% for Gaudin. Poll Logica TNS-Sofres, conducted from 22 to February 23 to 700 people.

(2) 40% for Guérini, 36% for Gaudin. Fiducial-Ifop poll, conducted on 22 and 23 February, with 803 people.

Clearstream: a report épigle Villepin

Dominique de Villepin had wanted to "prevent Nicolas Sarkozy to assume the presidency of the UMP." Photo credits: Aubert / LeFigaro
According to the document issued by the police, the former prime minister would have wagered on the slowness of the justice system to exonerate Nicolas Sarkozy in the case for the removal from the presidency of the UMP.
Dominique de Villepin wanted to "prevent Nicolas Sarkozy to assume the presidency of the UMP" and should be referred to a criminal court, said the judicial police in a report on the Clearstream affair, handed over to investigating judges d'Huy and Pons. The information, revealed by the website information MediaPart, was confirmed to Agence France-Presse by a source close to the case.

According to the report prepared by the national division of financial investigations (DNIF), the judicial police believed that in this case the former prime minister "has a short-term goal: to prevent Nicolas Sarkozy to assume the presidency of the UMP, emphasizing that it will take time to justice to show that the challenge of Nicolas Sarkozy through the listings Clearstream was unfounded, "says this source. The date of submission of this report differs depending on the source: MediaPart evokes the date of Friday, February 22, the closing date by the judges of the Clearstream investigation of the case. The source of the Agence France-Presse says simply "Thursday".

Besides Dominique de Villepin, the former vice-chairman of EADS Jean-Louis Gergorin, the computer analyst Imad Lahoud, the journalist Denis Robert and the former auditor Florian Bourges are also under investigation in this case. The report concludes the police, according to the same source close to the case, the legitimacy of those under investigation and reported sufficient charges to return the five persons concerned before the correctional court.


"Parties made and trial of intent"

The former Prime Minister has reacted quickly to MediaPart. In a text sent to the editor of the Internet site, it believes that the final report "shines mainly by the questions it does not address" and adds that "leaving aside all the elements that would show that too that At no time (he did) participated in a company of slander. " According to him, "charges (…) that are not based on biases and trials of intent." Dominique de Villepin also reiterated his desire that a trial restore "truth and justice" in this investigation.

At the heart of the Clearstream affair: couriers and bank listings sent anonymously in May and June 2004 to Judge Renaud van Ruymbeke, responsible for the investigation on bribes linked to the sale of frigates to Taiwan in 1991. A crow it accuses of industrial and political personalities, including Nicolas Sarkozy have hidden accounts held at the Chamber of Clearstream Luxembourg financial compensation that would have passed by the committees undue market frigates. In June 2007, Jean-Louis Gergorin, who has admitted to being the author of the anonymous mailings, said they acted at the request of Dominique de Villepin. The latter denies the remarks.

Municipal what colors for the future majority Parisian?

Bertrand Delanoe is still well above the fray. Ten days before the first round of municipal elections, a CSA poll to be published Thursday in Paris Obs gives the PS outgoing mayor of Paris, a candidate for his own succession, 43% of voting intentions in the first round. His main opponent, the UMP Francoise de Panafieu, for its part, collects 30%, 6 points lower than in January. Bertrand Delanoë prevailed in the second round with 57% of the vote. The favorite polls thus seems more than ever to perform well on a second term. The challenge is to find out the color that give his future majority? This is the question that focuses the attention. A portion of the veil has been lifted on this topic: 67% of Parisians believe that Bertrand Delanoe should not govern alone. In the same chapter, 27% of them are in favour of an alliance with both the Greens and the MoDem, which are both a list independently in the first round.

Indeed, the Greens, which would collect 5% of the votes (minimum threshold to merge with another list in the second round) should remain united with the PS during the next term. "A delegation of the Greens met with a delegation lists Bertrand Delanoe, Socialist only, to begin the first discussions on the programme," said Denis Baupin Wednesday, Green candidate for Mayor of Paris and current deputy mayor. "We agreed to this interview because the Greens are privileged and our allies are destined to remain so, even if they have chosen a list independently in the first round," says the point.fr Patrick Bloche, campaign manager Bertrand Delanoe. If the mayor of Paris and Denis Baupin have continued to attack verbally during the campaign - each claiming authorship of successful initiatives in the capital (tram) - hard to imagine Paris without the elected Greens .

The PS will not yield to the borough MoDem

The case of MoDem, credited with 9% of voting intentions, is more complex. The young party Francois Bayrou claims at every possible strategy of independence. Marielle de Sarnez, a leading centrist in Paris, multiplies the past few weeks, however, calls up by the media interposed to his rival, with a view to a possible alliance between the two towers. In addition, two out of three voters centrists Delanoe vote in the second round. However, the candidate for renewal assures that will not yield to the borough centrists and if approved, even calling this hypothesis "aberration".


"MoDem Paris has decreed that we céderions the 5th and 14th districts in the event of victory. They know that it is totally excluded for reasons of political logic, but also morality. Must not forget that Lyne Cohen-Solal fights in the 5th against Jean Tibéri for 10 years! "exclaims a PS Paris. Bertrand Delanoë echoed his view: "I will tell you with great clarity: My candidate for mayor of the 5th district in the first and second round, Lyne Cohen-Solal, and the mayor of the 14th, first and and second, Pierre Castagnou, "he said Sunday on Radio J." I am a man of the left. too I love democracy to propose to make zigzags. Democracy is straight , "he said Wednesday during a major campaign meeting held at the Zenith in Paris. "I do not want to be dependent on any ulterior motive and no political strategy with variable geometry".




Anyway, Marielle de Sarnez wants the MoDem be "unavoidable in the evening of the first round in Paris." In fact, if it gets 10% of the vote, it will have the opportunity to maintain its autonomous list in the second round. A choice consistent with the strategy of François Bayrou, déclamée as a slogan since the last presidential: that of "neither right nor left".

Jospin meets Sarkozy

Jospin meets Sarkozy

Joel Saget The former Prime Minister rejects the arguments put forward by the head of state to justify the increase in his salary
In an interview Tuesday Parisien / Aujourd 'hui, Nicolas Sarkozy had explained its émoluements want to align with those of the tenant Matignon. He said: "Who set the salary of the Prime Minister? Lionel Jospin."

"That's wrong", a replica thereof in a letter Thursday to the same newspaper, because his salary "was fixed by decree" presidential.

In autumn 2007, the substantial increase in the salary of Nicolas Sarkozy, expected to align with the treatment of the Prime Minister, had provoked the emotions of a section of public opinion, by means of criticism on the left.

Background About Sarkozy in Le Parisien
Tuesday in Le Parisien / Aujourd 'hui en France, and while its popularity is falling in recent weeks, Nicolas Sarkozy has embarked on an argument from his salary. He explained that he wanted to "win just as the prime minister" or "19,177 euros", while Jacques Chirac won in "20,000", accumulating 10,000 euros salary as president and all his retreats. " "Who fixes the salary of the Prime Minister? Lionel Jospin. When Lionel Jospin said that the Prime Minister must win 20,000 euros, there is no controversy because it is left," said Nicolas Sarkozy. "And we said, 'Sarkozy increases by 140% his salary!'. Where did they see that?"

The development of Jospin in Le Parisien
Lionel Jospin says that Nicolas Sarkozy has "unfortunately based his argument on two falsehoods": "He claimed that I set myself the salary of the Prime Minister (ie my own salary). C'est False. My treatment was fixed, such as ministers, by decree of the President of the Republic. " Lionel Jospin continues: Nicolas Sarkozy has argued that this amount was 20,000 euros. It's still wrong. " He then explained that his arrival at Matignon in 1997, his salary was "F 59,000 net (allowances) or 9000 euros", and not the figure of 20,000 euros. "Then, and until my departure in 2002, this treatment has progressed that pace increases made in the Civil Service."